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Lesson 12 of 25

Overlapping Generations Models of the Economy

In order for Social Security to work, people have to believe there's some possibility that the world will last forever, so that each old generation will have a young generation to support it. The overlapping generations model, invented by Allais and Samuelson but here augmented with land, represents such a situation. Financial equilibrium can again be reduced to general equilibrium. At first glance it would seem that the model requires a solution of an infinite number of supply equals demand equations, one for each time period. But by assuming stationarity, the whole analysis can be reduced to one equation. In this mathematical framework we reach an even more precise and subtle understanding of Social Security and the real rate of interest. We find that Social Security likely increases the real rate of interest. The presence of land, an infinitely lived asset that pays a perpetual dividend, forces the real rate of interest to be positive, exposing the flaw in Samuelson's contention that Social Security is a giant, yet beneficial, Ponzi scheme where each generation can win by perpetually deferring a growing cost.

Source: Open Yale Courses

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Financial Theory - Video Series

25 lessons

Lessons

1
Why Finance?
2
Utilities, Endowments, and Equilibrium
3
Computing Equilibrium
4
Efficiency, Assets, and Time
5
Present Value Prices and the Real Rate of Interest
6
Irving Fisher's Impatience Theory of Interest
7
Shakespeare's Merchant of Venice and Collateral, Present Value and the Vocabulary of Finance
8
How a Long-Lived Institution Figures an Annual Budget Yield
9
Yield Curve Arbitrage
10
Dynamic Present Value
11
Financial Implications of US Social Security System
12
Overlapping Generations Models of the Economy
13
Will the Stock Market Decline when the Baby Boomers Retire?
14
Quantifying Uncertainty and Risk
15
Uncertainty and the Rational Expectations Hypothesis
16
Backward Induction and Optimal Stopping Times
17
Callable Bonds and the Mortgage Prepayment Option
18
Modeling Mortgage Prepayments and Valuing Mortgages
19
Dynamic Hedging
20
Dynamic Hedging and Average Life
21
Risk Aversion and CAPM
22
The Mutual Fund Theorem and Covariance Pricing Theorems
23
Risk, Return, and Social Security
24
Leverage Cycle and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis
25
Shadow Banking: Parallel and Growing?
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