Lessons
- CFA Level 2: Economics - Introduction
- Economic Growth
- Changes in Productivity: The One-Third Rule
- The Productivity Curve
- Economic Growth Theories
- Government Regulation, Deregulation, and Regulatory Behaviour
- Gross Domestic Product (Measuring Economic Activity)
- International Trade & Trade Restrictions
- Balance of Payments
- Foreign Exchange Rate Systems and Parity Relationships
- Foreign Exchange Floating Rate Systems
- Fixed Exchange Rate Systems
- Overview of Currency Markets
- Forward Exchange Rates
- Interest Rate Parity
- Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
- International Fisher Relation
- Uncovered and Covered Interest Rate Parity Relationship
- Forecasting Exchange Rates
- CFA Level 2 Economics – Recommendations
Interest Rate Parity
Interest Rate Parity attempts to explain the difference between forward and spot rates as explained by differences in nominal interest rates and efficient markets will eliminate covered interest rate arbitrage opportunities.
FX/Y = SX/Y ((1+rX)/(1+rY))
- The annualized forward premium can be approximated by the difference in the two interest rates.
- When the domestic country (X) has a higher interest rate, it should sell at a forward discount as the currency is expected to depreciate; this indicates weakness.
- When the relationship between the forward and the spot rate in the formula above does not hold, an arbitrage opportunity exists. This is called covered interest rate arbitrage because the trader’s exchange rate risk is covered by the price secured in the forward contract.
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