Unconditional Probability Using Total Probability Rule

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As we learned earlier, the total probability rule determines the unconditional probability of an event in terms of probabilities conditional on scenarios.

P(A) = P(A | S1)P(S1) + P(A | S2)P(S2) + … + P(A | Sn)P(Sn)

Where the scenarios S1, S2, …Sn are mutually exclusive and exhaustive.