Time Series Analysis: Simple and Log-linear Trend Models

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Simple Time Series Models

This is basic trend modeling.

A simple trend model can be expressed as follows:

y~t=b0+b1t+εt\tilde{y}_t = b_0 + b_1 t + \varepsilon_t
  • b0b_0 = the y-intercept; where t = 0.
  • b1b_1 = the slope coefficient of the time trend.
  • t = the time period.
  • y~t\tilde{y}_t = the estimated value for time t based on the model.
  • εt\varepsilon_t = the random error of the time trend.

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