One, Two, and Three Stage FCF Calculations
Single Stage FCFE and International Valuation
- This approach is a variation on the Gordon Growth Method.
- Real cash flows, the real growth rate, and the real required rate of return will be applied to minimize potential distortion caused by inflation and other international differences.
International Stock: V0 = (FCFE0 * (1 + growth rate real)) / (r real - g real)
- Be mindful of the situation, to know if the question requires a total valuation or a per share valuation. If performing a per share valuation, then FCFE would need to be a per-share value to arrive at a stock price.
Two Stage Valuation
- General Two Stage FCFF Valuation
Vfirm = Σ FCFFt / (1 + WACC)t + [(FCFF n+1 / (WACC - g) × 1/(1+WACC)n]
- General Two Stage FCFE Valuation
Vequity = Σ FCFEt / (1 + rce)t + [(FCFE n+1 / (rce - g) * 1/(1 + rce)n]
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Either the FCFE or FCFF general two stage model may be applied for situations where a high growth phase is expected to shift to a mature growth phase (or where a mature growth phase is expected to shift to a decline phase).
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The first segment of the expression is the present value of the shares in the high growth phase.
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Terminal Value: The second segment of the formula is terminal value of the company at maturity. It is a Gordon Growth Model like valuation performed at the year that stable growth is reached, which is then discounted back to a present value. Correctly calculating and then discounting the terminal value trips up many candidates either through misapplication or calculation errors.
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rce is commonly derived using CAPM for exam purposes.
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This model does not necessarily represent two years, but two stages.
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The first segment of the formula can be calculated for several years and then the terminal value is calculated at the end of the high growth phase.
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It is difficult to achieve full understanding of the two stage model without practice. Candidates must walk through numerous practice problems to be exam ready (and CFAI loves to test this material).
