Why Stock Prices Move
In our everyday life we sometimes wonder about the most basic question of stock market – why does the price of a share go up or down? We are not talking about the daily or weekly gyrations but in the long run why the stocks moves.
The two most basic reasons are:
- Change in earnings
- Re-rating and De-rating of PE ratio
Let us see the net effect on the stock price when we combine these two phenomenon.
Suppose we have a new company in its supernormal growth stage and is delivering a growth of 50% p.a. The market is not sure of its sustainability and since it’s a new stock the number of analysts covering this stock is low. The market due to all these factors assigns a PE of 20 to this stock. If the EPS this year is Rs. 10, the stock would trade at Rs. 200.
Suppose next year also the stock continued its growth momentum and posted a growth of 50%. The EPS in this case would be Rs. 15. The market now recognises this stock as quarter after quarter it is posting impressive growth; also more analysts start analysing this stock. As the awareness increases the market thinks and due to its consistency and earning potential rerates the PE to 40. The stock price would then rise to Rs. 600.
The change of Rs. 400 (600-200) in stock price or trebling could be attributed to 50% change in earnings but the major part 100% is due to PE expansion.
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