Emerging Economies Perspectives 2011
Emerging economies as a group have enjoyed a great 2010. They could leave the financial crisis behind faster as many analysts believed while G-3 (United States, European Union and Japan) economies are still fighting with the consequences of the US housing market collapse.
China has led the improvement of emerging economies with a strong domestic demand and solid foreign accounts surplus. GDP has grown at 9% pace pushing commodities prices up. Also Brazil, another big economy, has shown its power and demonstrates that a balanced growth with low inflation is possible.
Many peripheria economies benefited from this situation due to higher export prices, lower unemployment and better social indicators such as less poverty.
However, year 2011 appears more challenging because the financial crisis in Europe, particularly in PIIGS countries, and inflation started deteriorating low income level society as a consequence of commodities' price trend.
Is it possible to see continuing growing with low inflation or do we have a new paradigm in front of us that will change the scenario? China has adopted control prices measures and hiked banks requirements three time in a month in order to avoid an over-heating of its economy.
Perspectives for year 2011 are good for emerging economies because growth will continue, at a lower pace, and US economy is gaining momentum again, and that is good news. Inflation is a challenge. European debt and fiscal situation also. But emerging economies look healthy, solid and they must take advantage of this in order to begin the catch up process with major economies.